The local Tampa real estate market continues to show signs of improvement with housing inventory levels steadily trending down and sale prices seeing a slight increase over last year. But, it’s the potential supply of housing units that lurk in the shadows of foreclosure that leaves the true measure of housing supply in the Tampa market as a question mark for the near future.
Based on our own local real estate market research and analysis from MLS studies, we believe that the Tampa market operates at an equilibrium inventory level of between 5 and 6 months of housing unit supply based on pre-‘Great Recession’ averages. So, inventory currently tracked at 3.5 months and down 41% year-over-year is a good sign that inventory is below equilibrium and old inventory is finally burning off (Source: gtar.org MLS data; June 2012). However, current research put out by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCHS) suggest that true housing supply across the nation is difficult to gauge accurately given the number of loans going through, or about to enter, the foreclosure process. Nationally, the JCHS shows that the number of loans in or near foreclosure have declined by 8.5% from their peak in 2010 but just over 3 millions loans remain at some phase in the foreclosure process (Source: JCHS State of the Nations Housing 2012; Figure 20). Difficult to place the number of those loans in the Tampa market place, but safe to assume that current MLS data levels may be artificially low given the lagging affect that the foreclosure fall out will have on the local Tampa marketplace.
Sold units are up year over year by 2% for the current month of June-2012. The local Tampa market absorbed 2,149 units this month vs. 2,101 in June-2011. More profound than sales remaining steady, Average Days On Market declined by 22% as measured against the same month prior year. This is a positive sign that the sales pace is increasing with newer inventory being turned over at an expedited pace and older inventory finally being cleared off the market.
The last 2 months have marked a positive turn around for pricing levels to rebound past the $170k mark, an average selling price that we haven’t seen in the Tampa market place in over 2 years. Current average selling price for the month of June was at $172,771, up 6% over last year and a marginal 1% over prior month. Also of note is the discounted rate between listing and selling price that show a 4% discrepancy on average between listing and selling prices for the current month. Not significant on its own, but when you compare to 2008 levels that averaged 8% it begins to become a clearer reflection of sellers understanding the true market value of their homes to sell through a shorter selling cycle.
Full Report: Tampa Real Estate Market Report June 2012
Curious to how things have changed since the last report? Read our December 2011 Tampa Real Estate Market Report
Check out the latest Tampa real estate / housing report updated in February of 2013: Tampa 1Q13 Real Estate Housing Report
By Dustin Holbrook
This is a good blog. Lots of cities are getting better, but I do agree property management helps.
What are the special property management services which you are offering to your clients?
I have read your blog but for me these are not common question related to property management for me.
Nice article, thanks for the information.
I have read your blog, it’s amazing. But I’m little bit confused after see the graph.
What is the inventory cost of this property? I want this information for my business.
You have explained this real estate topic very briefly through this graph. Anyone can understand this very easily.